A dive into the Spring 2021 Manhattan Retail Report and what falling rents can impact GME.
TL:DR Rents are down for retailers in NY. One has to wonder if this keeps up if Landlords will be able to afford any payments they owe on these reduced rents? For GameStop, if they are looking for any kind of flagship store in New York City, now appears to be the time to pounce!
Morning r/Superstonk, Jellyfish here! I have some more data surrounding real estate I would like to share with you. This time, the Real Estate Board of New York released their Spring 2021 Manhattan Retail Report.
Spoiler from the executive summary:
The Spring 2021 Manhattan Retail Report underscores a market that continues to adjust โ 16 of the 17 corridors registered a year-on-year decrease in asking rent. The pace of the rent adjustment is moderating, though.
The pandemic impacted every corner of Manhattan. However, the damage to retail corridors was uneven. Local service-oriented corridors with strong residential bases held up better. For example, compared to Spring of 2019, the average asking rent dropped by less than 15% in the Upper East Side. In contrast, corridors that depend on tourists and daytime commuters โ such as Madison Avenue and Fifth Avenue โ posted declines of more than 25% in the same period.
OK, letโs dive into the report!
First, some level setting on the terms you might see from the report:
vocab!
125th St. (5th Ave - Morningside Ave)
125th St. (5th Ave - Morningside Ave)
Spring 2021 data is based on 14 availabilities.
The average asking rent was down just a bit compared to spring 2015
Average asking PPSF: $138, a 3% decline from Fall 2020, and an 8% decline year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF all-time low: 112% increase from $65 in Spring 2004.
Average asking PPSF all-time high: 9% decline from $151 in Fall 2019
Broadway (72nd St. - 86th St.)
Broadway (72nd St. - 86th St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 26 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $240, a 1% decline from Fall 2020 and remained flat year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $140, a 16% decline from Fall 2020, and a 15% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $350, an 8% increase from Fall 2020, and an 8% increase year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 33%, from $359 in Spring 2016 to $240 in Spring 2021.
Columbus Ave (66th St. - 79th St.)
Broadway (72nd St. - 86th St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 13 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $288, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and a 6% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $142, a 20% decline from Fall 2020, and a 20% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $440, a 6% increase from Fall 2020, and remained flat year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 29%, from $405 in Spring 2016 to $288 in Spring 2021.
East 86th St. (Lexington Ave - 2nd Ave)
East 86th St. (Lexington Ave - 2nd Ave)
Spring 2021 data is based on 11 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $311, a 6% increase from Fall 2020, and a 9% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $150, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and a 25% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $425, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and an 11% decline year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 32%, from $450 in Spring 2016 to $311 in Spring 2021.
Madison Ave (57th St. - 72nd St.)
Madison Ave (57th St. - 72nd St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 56 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $773, a 1% decline from Fall 2020, and a 9% decline year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF all-time low: 57% increase from $491 in Fall 2002.
Average asking PPSF all-time high: 55% decline from $1,709 in Fall 2014.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 53%, from $1,644 in Spring 2016 to $773 in Spring 2021.
3rd Ave (60th St. - 72nd St.)
3rd Ave (60th St. - 72nd St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 15 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $197, a 7% decline from Fall 2020, and a 9% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF:$119, a 21% decline from Fall 2020, and a 21% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $296, a 9% increase from Fall 2020, and a 1% decline year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 47%, from $371 in Spring 2016 to $197 in Spring 2021.
East 57th St. (5th Ave - Park Ave)
East 57th St. (5th Ave - Park Ave)
No data available for Spring 2017
Spring 2021 data is based on 4 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $531, a 16% decline from Fall 2020, and a 22% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $225, a 50% decline from Fall 2020, and a 63% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $750, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and remained flat year over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 67%, from $1,625 in Spring 2016 to $531 in Spring 2021.
5th Ave (42nd St. โ 49th St.)
5th Ave (42nd St. โ 49th St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 15 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $615, a 14% decline from Fall 2020, and a 12% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF:$400, a 33% decline from Fall 2020, and a 20% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $700, a 28% decline from Fall 2020, and a 28% decline year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 55%, from $1,368 in Spring 2016 to $717 in Spring 2021.
5th Ave (49th St. โ 59th St.)
5th Ave (49th St. โ 59th St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 7 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $3,000, a 15% increase from Fall 2020, and a 1% decline year-over year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $2,500, a 292% increase from Fall 2020, and remained flat year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $3,500, a 23% decline from Fall 2020, and remained flat year-over-year.
Broadway & 7th Ave (42nd St. โ 47th St.)
Broadway & 7th Ave (42nd St. โ 47th St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 8 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $1,480, an 10% decline from Fall 2020, and a 26% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $825, a 136% increase from Fall 2020, and a 37% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF:$2,783, a 2% increase from Fall 2020, and a 2% increase year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 37%, from $2,363 in Spring 2016 to $1,480 in Spring 2021.
West 34th St. (5th Ave โ 7th Ave)
West 34th St. (5th Ave โ 7th Ave)
Spring 2021 data is based on 8 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $488, an 11% increase from Fall 2020, and a 4% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $325, a 90% increase from Fall 2020, and a 27% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $800, an 11% increase from Fall 2020, and an11% increase year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 45%, from $890 in Spring 2016 to $488 in Fall 2020.
5th Ave (14th St. โ 23rd St.)
5th Ave (14th St. โ 23rd St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 16 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $263, a 3% decline from Fall 2020, and a 3% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF:$125, 24% from Fall 2020, and a 24% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $375, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and remained flat year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 32%, from $385 in Spring 2016 to $263 in Spring 2021.
Broadway (14th St. โ 23rd St.)
Broadway (14th St. โ 23rd St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 13 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $296, an 8% decline from Fall 2020, and a 16% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF:$188, a 9% decline from Fall 2020, and a 25% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $375, an 8% decline from Fall 2020, and an 8% decline year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 34%, from $447 in Spring 2016 to $296 in Spring 2021.
14th St. (9th Ave โ 10th Ave)
14th St. (9th Ave โ 10th Ave)
Summer 2020 data is based on 17 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $300, a 10% decline from Fall 2020, and a 13% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $150, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and remained flat year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $700, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and remained flat year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 14%, from $348 in Spring 2016 to $300 in Spring 2021.
Bleecker St. (7th Ave South โ Hudson St.)
Bleecker St. (7th Ave South โ Hudson St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 23 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $241, a 5% decline from Fall 2020, and a 12% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $125, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and a 12% decline year over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $350, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and an 8% decline year over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 53%, from $513 in Spring 2016 to $241 in Spring 2021.
Broadway (Houston St. - Broome St.)
Broadway (Houston St. - Broome St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 31 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $310, a 16% decline from Fall 2020, and a 37% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $120, a 4% decline from Fall 2020, and a 52% decline year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $800, a 27% increase from Fall 2020, and an 18% decline year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: declined 62%, from $831 in Spring 2016 to $310 in Spring 2021.
Broadway (Battery Park - Chambers St.)
Broadway (Battery Park - Chambers St.)
Spring 2021 data is based on 27 availabilities.
Average asking PPSF: $406, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and a 3% decline year-over-year.
Lowest asking PPSF: $100, a 5% increase from Fall 2020, and a 5% increase year-over-year.
Highest asking PPSF: $785, which remained flat from Fall 2020, and remained flat year-over-year.
Average asking PPSF over a 5-year period: increased 24%, from $326 in Spring 2016 to $406 in Spring 2021.
TL:DR Rents are down for retailers in NY. One has to wonder if this keeps up if Landlords will be able to afford any payments they owe on these reduced rents? For GameStop, if they are looking for any kind of flagship store in New York City, now appears to be the time to pounce!
