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📈 Macroeconomics

October 2023 Financial Stability Report

The Fed's October 2023 Financial Stability Report: Three-fourths of survey participants cite persistent inflation and potential residential and commercial real estate losses as top concerns.

Highlights: Asset valuations: Equity prices grew faster than expected earnings, pushing the forward price-to-earnings ratio into the upper ranges of its historical distribution. Risk premiums in corporate bond markets narrowed somewhat and remained near the middle of their historical distributions. Prices of residential and commercial properties remained high relative to

Retail trade, August 2023

Canada Retail Sales down .1% to $66.1 billion in August. Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers—were down 0.3% in August. A .3% decrease was expected...

Wut Mean?: * Retail sales decreased by 0.1% to $66.1 billion in August. * Six of nine retail subsectors saw decreased sales. * Largest decrease: Motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.9%). * Core retail sales (excluding gasoline stations, fuel vendors, and motor vehicle and parts dealers) decreased by 0.3%. * Retail

Sales of previously owned homes in the US fell by 2% in September

National Association of Realtors: Sales of previously owned homes in the US fell by 2% from August to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.96 million units in September of 2023, the lowest since October 2010.

Highlights: * Existing-home sales slid 2.0% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million. Sales are down 15.4% from one year ago. * The median existing-home sales price grew 2.8% from one year ago to $394,300, marking the third consecutive month of year-over-year price

Treasury International Capital Data for August

Treasury International Capital Data for August: China sells the most U.S. securities in 4 years.

Wut Mean?: * China sold nearly $14.867 billion in long-dated Treasuries in August, along with $5.113 billion in U.S. stocks. * China sold $1.34 billion mortgage bonds. * All told, Chinese institutions and funds sold $21.1 billion in U.S. assets. * China has sold $235 billion in Treasuries

Beige Book - October 18, 2023

Fed's Beige Book October 2023: "Wage growth remained modest to moderate in most Districts." "firms struggled to maintain desired profit margins"

Overall Economic Activity: Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. Tourism activity continued to improve, although some Districts reported slight slowing in consumer travel,

Business Activity: Diffusion Index of Current and Expected Activity

NY Fed October Business Leader Survey: "Activity declined significantly in the region’s service sector." "The headline business activity index dropped sixteen points to -19.1, its lowest level in several months." "while wages grew"...

Highlights General Business Activity Overview: * The service sector in the region experienced a significant decline as per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October 2023 Business Leaders Survey. * The business activity index saw a considerable drop of sixteen points, reaching -19.1, its lowest in several months. * The

Survey responses were collected between October 2 and October 10.

October Empire State Manufacturing Survey: the headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6 (23.1 expected!)

Wut Mean?: General Business Activity: * Business activity in New York State saw a slight decline in October 2023, per the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. * The general business conditions index dropped by seven points, settling at -4.6 (23.1 had been expected). * While 24% of firms saw improved conditions over