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📈 Macroeconomics

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX – SEPTEMBER 2023

Inflation Alert! Bureau of Labor Statistics: Seasonally Adjusted, Employment Costs Jump Fastest & Highest Recorded in Data Series. More Fuel For Rate Hikes & For Rates to be Held Higher For Longer. South Park Called It!

Wut Mean? Total compensation costs for civilian workers (includes wages, salaries, and benefits of workers in the private sector and in state & local governments—increased 1.1% 3-month seasonally adjusted and 4.9% seasonally adjusted, over the past 12 months the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. This

Economy Statement by Eric Van Nostrand

Treasury: "Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target throughout 2023, reflecting rising prices for housing and other core services."

Highlights: * In the third quarter, real GDP grew at the fastest rate since late 2021, boosted by strong household consumption and a stronger build in private inventories. * Labor force participation rate rose to a post-pandemic high while the prime-age participation rate (those aged 25 to 54) advanced to its highest

Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates

Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates: During the October – December 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $776 billion. During the January – March 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $816 billion.

Source: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1851 The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the October – December 2023 and January – March 2024 quarters. During the October – December 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $776 billion in privately-held

Nikkei reports Bank of Japan will contemplate making additional modifications to its yield curve control (YCC) framework.

Nikkei: At its monetary policy meeting Tuesday, the Bank of Japan will contemplate making additional modifications to its yield curve control (YCC) framework. This could permit the yields of 10-year Japanese government bonds to exceed 1%.

Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bank-of-Japan/BOJ-to-tweak-policy-again-to-allow-10-year-yields-to-exceed-1 Highlights: * "The Bank of Japan is set to consider a further adjustment to its yield curve control (YCC) framework at Tuesday's monetary policy meeting, potentially allowing 10-year Japanese government bond yields to rise above 1%, sources close to the

Personal Income and Outlays, September 2023

The Fed’s Favored Core PCE Price Index was up 0.4% in September and is still stuck in the inflationary doldrums. Inflation is not being tamed!

The inflation index most favored by the Fed and the one they base policy actions off of, the core PCE price index (excludes food and energy products), re-accelerated in September from August (0.1% to 0.3%), as consumers continue to spend more and more on goods and services: Inflation

Bureau of Economic Analysis Q3 2023 GDP (Advanced Estimate): +4.9% Growth.

Bureau of Economic Analysis Q3 2023 GDP (Advanced Estimate): +4.9% Growth.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of +4.9% in Q3 of 2023 (following a +2.1% increase in Q2 of 2023), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. Wut Mean? * Consumer spending (~70% of GDP) jumped +4%

The Fed requests comment on a proposal to lower the maximum interchange fee. For example, the cap on an average-sized $50 debit card transaction would decline from 24.5 cents under the current rule to 17.7 cents under the proposal.

Summary of Proposed Rule: Congress has required the Board to establish standards for assessing whether the amount of any interchange fee received by a debit card issuer is reasonable and proportional to the cost incurred by the issuer with respect to the debit card transaction. The statutory provision – known as