NY Fed Survey: Expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rises. Meanwhile, conditional on expecting an offer, the average expected annual salary in the next 4 months increased sharply to $67,416 from $60,310 in July 2022, a new record.

Mean July 2022 $60,764

Wages on offers grew 14.3% year over year. The Fed is not going to like this for inflation!

Mean wage July 2022:$60,310

Expectations of working longer rising...

Wut Mean?:

The average full-time offer wage received rose sharply to $69,475.
The average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed increased to 3.9 percent, the highest reading since March 2020.
Conditional on expecting an offer, the average expected annual salary of job offers in the next four months increased to $67,416, the highest reading of the series. The average reservation wage (the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job) reached its highest reading of $78,645.
The average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one) as well as the average reservation wage (the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job) increased year-over-year and reached series highs.

Experiences

Among those who were employed four months ago, 91.4% were still employed, slightly down from 91.8% in July 2022. The rate of transitioning to a different employer increased to 5.3% from 4.1% in July 2022. This increase was driven by men and by respondents above age 45.
The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks declined to 19.4% from 24.7% in July 2022. The decrease was most pronounced for respondents younger than age 45, those without a college degree, and those with annual household income less than $60k.
19.5% of individuals reported receiving at least one job offer in the past four months, down from 21.1% in July 2022. The average full-time offer wage received in the past four months, on the other hand, increased sharply to $69,475 from $60,764 in July 2022.
Satisfaction with wage compensation, nonwage benefits, and promotion opportunities at respondents’ current jobs all improved by 3.0, 1.7, and 4.0 percentage points from July 2022 to 59.9%, 64.9%, and 53.5%, respectively. These increases were largest for the respondents with annual household incomes less than $60k.

Expectations

The expected likelihood of moving to a new employer declined somewhat to 10.6% from 11.0% in July 2022, while the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed increased to 3.9% from 2.3% in July 2022, the highest reading since March 2020. This increase in the expected likelihood of becoming unemployed was most pronounced for respondents younger than age 45 and those with annual household incomes less than $60k.
The average expected likelihood of receiving at least one job offer in the next four months retreated to 18.7% from 21.1% in July 2022, remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The average expected likelihood of receiving multiple offers in the next four months also declined, to 20.6% from 25.7% in July 2022.
Conditional on expecting an offer, the average expected annual salary of job offers in the next four months increased sharply to $67,416 from $60,310 in July 2022, reaching the highest reading of the series. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, but was most pronounced for respondents above age 45 and for college graduates.
The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—continued its upward annual trend and reached its highest reading of $78,645, from $72,873 in July 2022. This year-over-year increase was most pronounced for respondents above age 45.
The average expected likelihood of working beyond age 67 edged up to 32% from 31.3% in July 2022.

NY Fed Survey: Expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rises.
Meanwhile, conditional on expecting an offer, the average expected annual salary in the next 4 months increased sharply to $67,416 from $60,310 in July 2022, a new record.
Wages on offers up over 14% since July 2022, Inflation fuel!