Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks are spiking!

Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks are spiking!
Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks are spiking!

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm

Credit Cards:

Credit Cards
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS

All Consumer Loans:

All consumer loans
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCLACBS

 Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial Banks: 

 Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial Banks
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRALACBS

On the consumer side, this lines up with the Survey of Consumer Expectations: U.S. households probability of being able to come up with $2,000 if an unexpected need arose within the next month falling to its lowest level since 2013.

  • Credit Demand and Application Rates (2023):
    • Overall decline in consumer credit demand.
    • Decreased application rates for most credit types; increase for credit card limit increases.
    • Notable drop in mortgage loan applications to 4.3%.
  • Rejection Rates and Creditworthiness:
    • Rise in rejection rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgage refinancing.
    • Decrease in rejection rates for new mortgage applications and credit card limit extensions.
    • Applicants for new mortgages in 2023 showed higher creditworthiness.
  • Future Credit Application Expectations:
    • Decreased likelihood of applying for new credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages in the next 12 months.
    • Increased perceived likelihood of future credit application rejections for all loan types.
  • Financial Fragility of U.S. Households:
    • Decreased probability of raising $2,000 for unexpected needs, the lowest since 2013.
  • Voluntary and Involuntary Account Closures:
    • Rise in lender-initiated account closures for any type of credit in 2023.
  • It's a good thing GameStop has Apes holding down the balance sheet in an economy facing headwinds!
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