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📈 Macroeconomics

$86 billion deposited to commercial banks in the last week (May 17th-24th). $920 billion in deposits has been pulled since the all time hit 4/13/22. Since the run picked up momentum 2/22/2023, $452 billion in deposits have been pulled.

Happy Friday Superstonk, I hope everyone had a great week! Resident Jellyfish back again to review this weeks commercial bank deposit data (and how deposit outflows are still being 'made up' with borrowing from sweetheart liquidity programs for the banks. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/20230602/ https:

Reverse Repo Update! Reverse Repo counterparties list updated: Goldman Sachs Investor Money Market Fund, JNL Government Money Market Fund and JNL/WMC Government Money Market Fund have been added to the list of reverse repo counterparties, effective June 2

Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties#additions-and-removals Reddit Post

Schrödinger's labor market: ADP wallops expectations, adds 278,000 job in May (180,000 expected). Yet, initial jobless claims (232,000) are highest level since April. Nonetheless, wages are rising--adding more data for the justification for continued hike

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA https://adpemploymentreport.com/ REMEMBER Fed Governors have had this to say about Employment/Labor/Wages:5/8/23: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: 6:10 The job market and the credit conditions those are the two main things we want to be looking at

A big short in Treasury's? Traders are building up bets around a debt ceiling resolution

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-big-short-in-treasurys-traders-are-building-up-bets-around-a-debt-ceiling-resolution-5aedee28 Speculators have been building up a “historically massive” short position in U.S. Treasury futures ahead of what could be $1 trillion of new debt issuance on the heels of a debt-ceiling resolution, according to Macquarie’s sales and trading global macro strategy

Federal Reserve Alert! Get ready for a new 'recession' definition! From today's Fed beige book - May 31, 2023: "Demand for transportation services was down, especially in trucking, where contacts reported there was a "freight recession.""

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook20230531.htm Overall Economic Activity * Economic activity was little changed overall in April and early May. * Four Districts reported small increases in activity, six no change, and two slight to moderate declines. * Expectations for future growth deteriorated a little, though contacts still largely expected a

Fed Governor Jefferson: "While my base case forecast for the U.S. economy is not a recession, higher interest rates and lower earnings could test the ability of businesses to service debt"

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20230531a.htm Financial Stability and the U.S. Economy Governor Philip N. Jefferson At the 22nd Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector, Washington, D.C. Highlights: * While my base case forecast for the U.S. economy is not a recession,

$29 billion deposited to commercial banks in the last week (May 10th-17th). $1,006 billion in deposits has been pulled since the all time hit 4/13/22. Since the run picked up momentum 2/22/2023, $538 billion in deposits have been pulled.

Happy Friday Superstonk, resident Jellyfish back with you to review this weeks commercial bank deposit data (and how deposit outflows are being 'made up' with borrowing from sweetheart liquidity programs for the banks. I hope everyone enjoys the long weekend! Let's get to it! https://www.