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📈 Macroeconomics

PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES – SEPTEMBER 2023

Inflation Alert! Producer Price Index Rises 0.5% in September, 2.2% for year. This is the largest increase since April. Inflation still raging.

Good morning and Happy Wednesday! Today before the CPI numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index for final demand for September: The Producer Price Index for Final Demand tracks the input prices for consumer-facing industries whose output prices are then tracked by the Consumer Price Index--think

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman in speech Financial Stability in Uncertain Times

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman: "I am also monitoring the potential financial stability implications of nonperforming CRE loans that are packaged as part of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)."

Interesting Comments: Commercial real estate "I am also monitoring the potential financial stability implications of nonperforming CRE loans that are packaged as part of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). It is much more difficult to restructure a nonperforming loan that is part of a CMBS pool when compared with nonperforming

September Survey of Consumer Expectations

September Survey of Consumer Expectations: Inflation expectations 1yr 3.7%, 3yr 3.0% >2%. Households’ perceptions & expectations for credit conditions deteriorated.

Source September 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The main findings from the September 2023 Survey are: Inflation * Median inflation expectations increased by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons to 3.7% and 3.0%, respectively. In contrast, median inflation expectations decreased by 0.

Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson in speech 'U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Transmission'

Fed's Jefferson on core nonhousing services inflation: "Since this segment accounts for more than 50% of the overall core PCE index, we will need to see further slowing in this area to meet our inflation objective."

The Inflation Outlook: * "Even though recent inflation data have been encouraging, inflation remains too high. Over the 12 months ending in August, total Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices rose 3.5 percent, the black line in figure 1. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose

Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr

Fed's Michael Barr: The rise in required capital is for activities that have generated outsized losses at large banks & areas where current rules have shortcomings.

Highlights: * "Most of the banks represented in this room today—and the vast majority of banks in the country—would not be subject to the Board's recent "endgame" proposal on bank capital. The proposal affects only the very largest banks." * "The proposal is

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman: "Inflation continues to be too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the Committee to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time"

Highlights: * "Inflation continues to be too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the Committee to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time to return inflation to our 2 percent goal in a timely way." * "Most recently, the

Consumer Credit August 2023

U.S. Revolving credit (credit cards) grew by $14.7 billion (13.9%) in August, up from the $10.4 billion gain recorded in July.

In August, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8 percent. Consumer spending is a major factor in the U.S. economy and