Inflation Alert! Bureau of Labor Statistics: Seasonally Adjusted, Employment Costs Jump Fastest & Highest Recorded in Data Series. More Fuel For Rate Hikes & For Rates to be Held Higher For Longer. South Park Called It!
Wut Mean?
Total compensation costs for civilian workers (includes wages, salaries, and benefits of workers in the private sector and in state & local governments—increased 1.1% 3-month seasonally adjusted and 4.9% seasonally adjusted, over the past 12 months the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. This was the highest 12-month reading EVER in the series!
In June, Wages and salaries account for 70.6% of compensation costs, while benefit costs averaged the remaining 29.4%. As we’ll see digging into the data, the jump was mostly caused by wages and salaries in state and local government (which can be seen as catching up to what has been already happening in private industry).
Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers
Wages and salaries in the private sector were up 1.1%, seasonally adjusted over the past three months, and for the 12-month period, rose 5.3%. seasonally adjusted the fastest rate ever and highest reading ever!
Benefits: Private Industry Workers
Employee benefits in the private sector rose 4.8%, seasonally adjusted over the past 12 months.
Wages and Salaries: State and Local Government
The jump in State and Local Government wages was bigger than the private sector, up 1.8%, seasonally adjusted over the last 3 months and 3.9%, seasonally adjusted over the last 12 months--also the fastest and highest reading ever!
Benefits: State and Local Government
Employee benefits in the private sector rose 4.3%, seasonally adjusted over the past 12 months.
Remember, the Fed is looking for no more than 2% growth and wage growth is BLOWING past that!
Fun fact, of private industry workers, installation, maintenance, and repair has seen the BIGGEST jump in gains.
Why is this interesting? South Park just humorously 'called' this in the 'Joining the Panderverse'
The episode then really kicks into gear when Randy is asked by Sharon to fix the oven door and he 'does it' by reaching out to the handyman who the needs additional hardware and he is going to put Randy's project on the back burner for another when:
I don't want to spoil anything but the findings of the episode line up with installation, maintenance, and repair seeing the biggest jump in compensation in the private industry.
TLDRS:
- Total compensation costs for civilian workers, encompassing both wages and benefits, surged by 1.1% seasonally adjusted over the past three months and 4.9% over the past 12 months, marking the highest 12-month increase on record.
- In the breakdown, wages and salaries constitute 70.6% of total compensation costs.
- The significant rise was largely attributed to state and local government wages, which can be viewed as catching up with the private sector's earlier increases.
- Private industry workers saw a 5.3% seasonally adjusted increase in wages and salaries over the past 12 months—the fastest and highest ever recorded, while their benefits rose by 4.8%.
- State and local government workers experienced an even larger increase, with wages up 1.8% over the past three months and 3.9% over the past year, alongside a 4.3% rise in benefits—all marking record highs.
- This wage growth significantly outpaces the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating a substantial inflationary trend in labor costs.
- South Park called it!
- Reminder, while banks have the liquidity fairy, 'we' get the promise of more rate hikes this year, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic yet again enrichens himself inappropriately from his position.
- To fix one end of their mandate (price stability) from the inflation problem they created, the Fed will continue sacrificing employment (the other end of their mandate) to bolster price stability by continuing to raise interest rates--causing further stress to businesses and households.
- I believe inflation is the match that has been lit that will light the fuse of our rocket.
