Inflation Alert! ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 113,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 5.7% for stayers, 8.4% for job changers.

Wut Mean?:

• Private sector employment increased by 113,000 jobs in October.
• The jobs report provides a high-frequency, near real-time measure of U.S. employment based on actual payroll data from over 25 million U.S. employees.
• No single industry dominated hiring; education and health care took the lead from leisure and hospitality as the top job creator.

Employment Change by Industry Sector:

• Goods-producing sector added 6,000 jobs.
  • Natural resources/mining: -1,000
  • Construction: 4,000
  • Manufacturing: 3,000
• Service-providing sector added 107,000 jobs.
  • Trade/transportation/utilities: 35,000
  • Information: 0
  • Financial activities: 21,000
  • Professional/business services: -10,000
  • Education/health services: 45,000
  • Leisure/hospitality: 17,000
  • Other services: -1,000

Pay Insights:

• Job-stayers reported a 5.7 percent year-over-year pay increase in October.
• Pay growth for job-changers was 8.4 percent.

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Industry Sector:

• Goods-producing:
  • Natural resources/mining: 5.3%
  • Construction: 5.8%
  • Manufacturing: 5.2%
• Service-providing:
  • Trade/transportation/utilities: 5.5%
  • Information: 5.1%
  • Financial activities: 6.1%
  • Professional/business services: 5.6%
  • Education/health services: 6.3%
  • Leisure/hospitality: 6.6%
  • Other services: 5.9%

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Firm Size:

• Small firms:
  • 1-19 employees: 4.9%
  • 20-49 employees: 5.8%
• Medium firms:
  • 50-249 employees: 5.9%
  • 250-499 employees: 5.8%
• Large firms:
  • 500+ employees: 5.8%
• Job-stayers reported a 5.7% year-over-year pay increase, the slowest pace of growth since October 2021.
• Job-changers saw an 8.4% pay increase, the smallest since July 2021.

More inflation fuel as the Fed gets ready to meet on rates today! I am sure thar corporate media will speak to a softening 'labor market' as 130,000 jobs were forecast to be created by the WSJ.

Recall, this lines up with the Employment Cost Index for September:

TLDRS:

• According to ADP, Private sector employment increased by 113,000 jobs in October.
• Job-stayers reported a 5.7 percent year-over-year pay increase in October.
• Pay growth for job-changers was 8.4 percent.
• ADP's report lines up with the Employment Cost Index for September.
  • Total compensation costs for civilian workers, encompassing both wages and benefits, surged by 1.1% seasonally adjusted over the past three months and 4.9% over the past 12 months, marking the highest 12-month increase on record.
  • In the breakdown, wages and salaries constitute 70.6% of total compensation costs.
  • The significant rise was largely attributed to state and local government wages, which can be viewed as catching up with the private sector's earlier increases.
  • Private industry workers saw a 5.3% seasonally adjusted increase in wages and salaries over the past 12 months—the fastest and highest ever recorded, while their benefits rose by 4.8%.
  • State and local government workers experienced an even larger increase, with wages up 1.8% over the past three months and 3.9% over the past year, alongside a 4.3% rise in benefits—all marking record highs.
  • This wage growth significantly outpaces the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating a substantial inflationary trend in labor costs.
• Inflation is not slowing down!
• I wonder if we hear more complaints about this data being revised upwards in the future?
• Reminder, while banks have the liquidity fairy, 'we' get the promise of more rate hikes this year, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic yet again enrichens himself inappropriately from his position.
• To fix one end of their mandate (price stability) from the inflation problem they created, the Fed will continue sacrificing employment (the other end of their mandate) to bolster price stability by continuing to raise interest rates--causing further stress to businesses and households.
• I believe inflation is the match that has been lit that will light the fuse of our rocket.